PH Elections 2016 Analysis

[email protected] June 11 2016

Summary

A study of the Philippines 2016 elections.

Part 1 - Election Fingerprints

Taking from the methodology rolled out by Klimek, Yegorov, Hanel, Thurner (2012)[1], we examine city/municipality level data to determine whether we can detect electoral fraud through vote padding by examining voter turnouts against share of the winning candidate. If fake votes are added to the count, some areas would exhibit an unusually high voter turnout, with a large number of votes going to the candidate favored by the fraud.

We can examine many candidates and races at once by taking a look at the distribution of the logarithmically scaled vote count (defined the detailed post) and flagging candidates that stray too far away from normality.

We also constructed a shiny widget to explore the results for all national elective positions.

The complete analysis is laid out in this blog post.

Publication

The results of this analysis will be published in tjpalanca.com, a data blog:

Part 1 - Election Fingerprints - statistical electoral fraud detection via voter turnout and votes for winning candidate. (GMA News Cross Post)

Project Information

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Author Information

Troy James R Palanca

[1] Klimek, Yegorov, Hanel, Thurner (2012). Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109(41).